The latest report from the Experimental Lab for International Security Studies (ELISS) offers results of a cross-national survey regarding public support for nuclear arms control with Russia and China, in the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Poland. Furthermore, the survey included an embedded experiment investigating cross-national attitudes toward nuclear and chemical weapon use.

Conducted in collaboration with IPSOS s.r.o., the research collected data rom the four aforementioned countries from 5002 respondents altogether in the timeframe from September to October 2023.

Key Takeaways: General

• Although respondents from all countries report rather limited knowledge on nuclear arms control, there is a remarkably high level of support for new arms control treaties with both Russia and China.

• While there is a certain element of mistrust, the public both in the United States and Europe are, for the most part, willing to engage in nuclear deal talks with Russia and China.

Key Takeaways: Arms control with Russia

• Over 90% of respondents in all five countries (except for France, with 85%) found the New START Treaty important for the security of their countries.

• Over 85% of respondents across all five countries reported agreement with the creation of a new arms control treaty with Russia.

• Western public sees a potential new arms control treaty with Russia as a preventative measure aimed at reducing the risk of a potential nuclear war between the US and Russia.

• Russia’s behavior toward Ukraine was not perceived as a potential obstacle to negotiating a new treaty by the majority of respondents

• There is a consistent concern across all five countries that Russia would cheat and renege on its treaty obligations, which was seen as the most compelling reason against a new deal by more than one-third of respondents in all countries.

Key Takeaways: Arms control with China

• Almost 90% of respondents from all five countries approve of an idea of a new arms control deal with China.

• The leading reason for a new arms control treaty is a lower risk of a nuclear conflict and positive impact US-China relations.

• More than one-third of respondents in all countries believe the most compelling reason against negotiating a nuclear deal with China is the probability of China cheating.

The research involved contributions from Michal Smetana, Ondřej Rosendorf, Marek Vranka and Zakir Rzazade.

The latest report from the Herzl Center for Israel Studies and the Peace Research Center Prague offers an in-depth analysis of the evolving attitudes of the Czech public and political elites towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Conducted in collaboration with IPSOS s.r.o., the research spans two waves of public opinion surveys in January 2023 and January 2024, as well as a survey of political elites at the turn of 2022-2023.

Key findings reveal a notable increase in the Czech public's interest in Israel-related news and a rise in support for recognizing Palestine as an independent state, alongside a distinct polarization in opinions regarding the historical and current responsibilities in the conflict.

The report highlights that approximately one-third of Czechs believe both nations share equal blame for the conflict's origins. However, there is a growing tendency to attribute more responsibility to Palestinians, with 21% of Czechs holding this view—an increase of 6 percentage points from 2023. Similarly, views on the conflict's continuation show significant division.

Additionally, the report confirms that Czech political elites (regardless of their party affiliation) are more often pro-Israeli in their attitudes than the average Czech population. The Czech society is, however, also traditionally more pro-Israeli, which can be seen with 37% Czechs sympathizing more with Israel after the attack on October. Moreover, 44% respondents agree with Israel’s actions in the conflict, while 42% approve of Israel’s demands.

The research involved contributions from Irena Kalhousová, Tereza Plíštilová, Sarah Komasová, Michal Smetana and Marek Vranka.

by Michal Smetana, Marek Vranka, Ondřej Rosendorf

The influence of American public opinion on Cold War-era arms control talks, particularly between the United States and the Soviet Union, is well-documented. Public pressure led to significant arms control agreements, including the Partial Test Ban Treaty of 1963 and major treaties in the late 1980s. However, recent developments, like Moscow's suspension of the New START Treaty and Russia's deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus, alongside China's unregulated nuclear expansion, pose new challenges. With the future of nuclear arms control in question, this paper examines whether the U.S. public supports engaging in arms control talks with Russia and China. An original survey reveals that, despite limited knowledge of specific agreements, Americans overwhelmingly support arms control, driven by bipartisan concerns over nuclear war and compliance risks.

by Jan Hornát.

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) will likely impact all aspects of the human experience and international relations are no exception. Decision-making in foreign policy is contingent on the availability of information, which is, however, often scarce. As a supporting tool for policymakers, states have come to employ various methods of foresight and scenario-building in order to better understand and evaluate the behavior of adversaries and the possible results of their own decisions. It is particularly the domain of foresight and data-informed diplomacy, where generative AI could significantly impact the decision-making process. This paper first maps out how generative AI can be leveraged to serve as a “hyper-informed” forecaster and advisor to foreign policymakers and then proceeds to problematize the said developments. Ethical and practical issues related to deterrence and decision-making authority of AI in the chain of command are then discussed as the new security dilemmas of AI integration into policymaking.