The latest report from the Experimental Lab for International Security Studies (ELISS) offers results of a cross-national survey regarding public support for nuclear arms control with Russia and China, in the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Poland. Furthermore, the survey included an embedded experiment investigating cross-national attitudes toward nuclear and chemical weapon use.
Conducted in collaboration with IPSOS s.r.o., the research collected data rom the four aforementioned countries from 5002 respondents altogether in the timeframe from September to October 2023.
Key Takeaways: General
Although respondents from all countries report rather limited knowledge on nuclear arms control, there is a remarkably high level of support for new arms control treaties with both Russia and China.
While there is a certain element of mistrust, the public both in the United States and Europe are, for the most part, willing to engage in nuclear deal talks with Russia and China.
Key Takeaways: Arms control with Russia
Over 90% of respondents in all five countries (except for France, with 85%) found the New START Treaty important for the security of their countries.
Over 85% of respondents across all five countries reported agreement with the creation of a new arms control treaty with Russia.
Western public sees a potential new arms control treaty with Russia as a preventative measure aimed at reducing the risk of a potential nuclear war between the US and Russia.
Russia’s behavior toward Ukraine was not perceived as a potential obstacle to negotiating a new treaty by the majority of respondents
There is a consistent concern across all five countries that Russia would cheat and renege on its treaty obligations, which was seen as the most compelling reason against a new deal by more than one-third of respondents in all countries.
Key Takeaways: Arms control with China
Almost 90% of respondents from all five countries approve of an idea of a new arms control deal with China.
The leading reason for a new arms control treaty is a lower risk of a nuclear conflict and positive impact US-China relations.
More than one-third of respondents in all countries believe the most compelling reason against negotiating a nuclear deal with China is the probability of China cheating.
The research involved contributions from Michal Smetana, Ondřej Rosendorf, Marek Vranka and Zakir Rzazade.